开发和评估一个预测模型,用于女孩中部早期青春期的预测模型
Yufan Wu1, Chaoliang Xu1, Jingdi Li1
1Department of Pediatrics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.
Translational pediatrics
|March 11, 2026
概括
一个使用单次抽血的新模型准确地预测了女孩中部早期青春期 (CPP) 风险. 这种工具有助于早期查和诊断这种常见的儿科内分泌疾病.
科学领域:
- 儿科内分泌学 儿科内分泌学
- 生殖健康 生殖健康
- 临床诊断 临床诊断 临床诊断
背景情况:
- 中部早熟性青春期 (CPP) 是儿科内分泌学中日益关注的一个问题,它影响了年轻女孩.
- 当前的CPP预测模型通常需要复杂的测试或缺乏综合数据,阻碍了早期检测.
- 需要对CPP进行可访问的选工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型用于中央早熟青春期 (CPP) 使用单次抽血.
- 创建一个整合临床,实验室和成像数据的工具,以改善CPP查.
- 为了提高儿童患者中CPP的早期诊断.
主要方法:
- 在一个单一中心对被诊断患有早期青春期的女孩进行了回顾性研究.
- 使用最小绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 回归和物流回归用于模型开发.
- 包括临床,实验室 (雌激素,FSH,LH) 和成像 (骨年龄) 数据;作为黄金标准的GnRH刺激测试.
主要成果:
- 开发的LASSO-逻辑回归模型确定了CPP的六个关键预测因素:年龄,雌激素,FSH,LH,乳腺色阶段和骨年龄.
- 该模型表现出高差异性性能,在培训队列中AUC为0.92,在外部验证中为0.924.
- 为了方便的临床应用,创建了一个基于Web的动态名录图平台.
结论:
- 一个新的,基于单次血液抽取的CPP预测模型已成功开发和验证.
- 该模型具有很高的准确性和临床实用性,用于查和诊断女孩中部早期青春期.
- 动态诺摩格拉姆平台促进了风险评估,并帮助CPP的早期干预.
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