非传统安全问题的时空空间分析全球发展:来自新闻大数据的证据

Jiaqi Li¹, Zhenfu Li¹, Shiyue Li²

¹College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, 116026, China.

Scientific reports

|March 12, 2026

概括

全球非传统安全 (NTS) 挑战在2012年和2016年激增,主要是恐怖主义和不稳定. 现在,NTS风险在全球范围内更加分散,需要适应性跨境治理.

科学领域:

全球安全研究全球安全研究
国际关系国际关系
数据科学数据科学数据科学

背景情况:

自21世纪以来,非传统安全 (NTS) 的挑战在全球范围内不断升级.
现有的研究往往缺乏对NTS演变的全面,数据驱动的全球视角.

研究的目的:

分析2000年至2023年全球非传统安全 (NTS) 问题的时空演变.
使用新型指标量化NTS活动的频率和影响.
在全球范围内识别NTS挑战的不同阶段和不断变化的模式.

主要方法:

使用了来自全球事件,语言和音调数据库 (GDELT) 的事件数据.
为153个国家 (2000-2023) 构建了一个全球面板数据集.
开发并应用了CEN (事件数) 和NSII (NTS影响指数) 指标来衡量NTS规模和严重程度.

主要成果:

确定了全球NTS演变的五个不同的阶段,其中2012年和2016年的峰值.
峰值主要是由中东,南亚和非洲的恐怖主义和社会不稳定造成的.
观察到NTS热点向更分散和跨区域模式的转变,表明风险扩散.

结论:

由于NTS风险越来越相互关联和跨区域,需要适应性,跨境治理.
持续监测机制对于有效应对不断变化的NTS威胁至关重要.
该研究提供了一个数据驱动的框架,用于跟踪和理解全球NTS动态.

关键词:

事件数据分析事件数据分析.的GIS可视化可视化新闻大数据大数据非传统证券 (NTS) 是指非传统的证券.安全热点是安全热点.

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