交互/调节效应在何时在线性回归中稳定?
Andrew Castillo1, Joshua D Miller2, Colin Vize3
1Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana.
在线性回归中准确估计双向相互作用是具有挑战性的. 蒙特卡洛模拟显示,样本大小和预测器可靠性是稳定的相互作用估计的关键,典型的心理学研究需要大样本大小.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 心理测量 心理测量 心理测量
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 线性回归中的双向相互作用效应对于理解复杂关系至关重要.
- 估计和测试相互作用的统计学意义往往是困难的,因为效果大小小和低可靠性.
研究的目的:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟来确定连续变量之间的双向相互作用的稳定性值.
- 调查可靠性,主要效应大小,对线性和相互作用效应大小对相互作用估计稳定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用蒙特卡洛模拟来评估双向相互作用估计的稳定性.
- 使用修改的走廊和稳定度指标的确定稳定性.
- 检查了预测器可靠性,主要效应大小,对线性和相互作用效应大小的各种组合.
主要成果:
- 相互作用估计的稳定性主要取决于样本大小和预测器可靠性.
- 现实的心理学实地研究需要n = 3,800的样本大小以保持稳定,具有72%的统计能力.
- 小样本大小 (n <=100) 导致高百分比的 (11-45%) 错误签名的相互作用估计.
结论:
- 由于样本规模和预测器可靠性不足,心理学中许多已发表的相互作用发现可能是不稳定的.
- 使用高度可靠的预测指标 (例如实验组分配) 的分析可能会在较小的样本大小下稳定.
- 在进行双向相互作用试验之前,研究人员应该确保适当的样本大小和可靠性,特别是当假设预先指定时.
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