中国江西省2000-2030年全因健康调整的预期寿命:系统估计和分析
Jing Ding1, Sanqian Chen1,2, Yuting Deng1
1School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Donghu Campus, Nanchang, Nanchang 330006, PR China.
Preventive medicine reports
|March 12, 2026
概括
江西省预计将达到健康中国2030年健康调整预期寿命 (HALE) 目标. 然而,老年人的残疾增加和性别差异需要有针对性的干预措施来改善健康结果.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 健康中国2030倡议为改善人口健康设定了国家目标.
- 评估各州在实现这些目标方面取得的进展,对于有效实施政策至关重要.
- 健康调整的预期寿命 (HALE) 是总体人口健康和寿命的关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 评估江西省在实现健康中国2030全因HALE目标方面的进展情况.
- 分析残疾生活年数 (YLD) 的趋势,并确定人口差异.
- 预测未来的HALE,并评估实现国家目标的可能性.
主要方法:
- 利用2000年至2020年的省级数据,使用经过验证的模型估计所有原因的YLD率.
- 通过苏利文方法计算HALE,并使用省级缩短寿命表.
- 在2021-2030年预测中采用李卡特和ARIMA模型,并使用蒙特卡洛模拟来定量不确定性.
主要成果:
- 江西全因HALE增加了7.8年 (2000-2020年),预计到2030年将达到71.6年,达到国家目标.
- 年轻人群中YLD的发病率下降,但在80岁及以上的人群中增加.
- 与男性相比,女性的预期寿命和HALE都更高,但与男性相比,她们积累的不健康生命年数更多.
结论:
- 江西省正走在实现健康中国2030年HALE目标的道路上.
- 显著的年龄和性别差异在健康结果中仍然存在.
- 需要量身定制的干预措施来满足妇女和老年人的需求,以提高与健康有关的生活质量.
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