气候变化可以为作物养的食草动物创造无敌的空间
Kris A G Wyckhuys1,2,3,4, Gabor Pozsgai5, Elizabeth A Finch6,7,8,9
1Chrysalis Consulting, Danang, Vietnam.
Global change biology
|March 12, 2026
概括
气候变化通过减少自然害虫控制来威胁粮食安全. 许多害虫将失去有益的昆虫,可能会增加全球作物损失.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 用作物养的食草动物导致了全球显著的产量损失,估计为20%.
- 生物控制剂对于调节食草动物种群至关重要,但易受气候变化的影响.
- 预计气候变化的影响将加剧草食动物引起的作物损害.
研究的目的:
- 预测气候变化对14种主要农业害虫生物防治剂丰富性的影响.
- 评估气候变化驱动的范围扩大如何影响自然害虫监管服务的有效性.
- 识别害虫和最容易受到气候变化引起的生物控制变化的地区.
主要方法:
- 利用利基模型来预测14种主要害虫的生物控制剂社区的变化.
- 在气候变化场景下分析了寄生虫和捕食者协会的预测变化.
- 评估了与害虫相互作用的变化及其对生物控制强度的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计57%至100%的分析害虫将因气候变化而失去重要的寄生虫和捕食者伙伴.
- 特定的害虫,如麻豆虫,可能会面临降低的寄生虫压力 (27%的下降).
- 国际性害虫可能会经历捕食者压力下降 (6-7%),可能导致"敌人释放"和增加作物损害.
结论:
- 气候变化显著破坏了农业系统中基于生物多样性的害虫控制的稳定性.
- 预计自然敌人的减少可能会加剧害虫疫情,威胁全球粮食安全.
- 为了在环境变化下保持有效的害虫管理,需要紧急,综合和环保的战略.
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