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建模高度致病性禽流感的溢出风险从野生鸟类到牛在丹麦:一个数据驱动的风险评估框架

You Chang¹, Jose L Gonzales², Erik Rattenborg³

¹Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C 1870, Denmark.

Preventive veterinary medicine

|March 12, 2026

概括

高致病性禽流感病毒 (HPAIV) H5N1对丹麦牛群构成风险. 一个新的模型估计每周溢出风险低,在12月至3月的沿海地区风险最高.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
传染病建模传染病模型
一个健康一个健康

背景情况:

高致病性禽流感病毒 (HPAIV) H5N1类2.3.4.4b最近已经从野生鸟类蔓延到美国的奶牛.
这种溢出事件威胁着动物和公共健康,需要对其他地区进行风险评估,比如丹麦,它位于迁徙飞行路线上.

研究的目的:

评估HPAIV从野生鸟类传播到丹麦牛的潜在风险.
开发和应用一个定量模型来估计每周溢出效应的概率.
为准备和监视战略提供信息.

主要方法:

开发了一个定量溢出风险评估模型,整合了来自禽流感雷达,eBird和牛群密度的数据.
使用美国溢出数据对模型进行校准,并推断到丹麦.
应用了依赖频率和依赖密度的建模方法.

主要成果:

这种依赖频率的模型预测丹麦牛的每周HPAIV引入率不到0.35,风险高峰期是12月至3月.
在丹麦海岸线和德国边境附近确定了高风险地区.
密度依赖模型将空间风险转移到高牛密度地区,而时间风险模式保持一致.

结论:

从野生鸟类传播HPAIV到丹麦牛的风险在空间和时间上是可变的.
开发的模型为早期预警和有针对性的监测提供了一个数据驱动的框架.
加强准备工作至关重要,因为禽流感病毒可能传播给牛.

关键词:

鸟类流感雷达可以检测到.牛群是牛群,牛群是牛群,牛群是牛群.这就是HPAIV.溢出风险溢出风险溢出风险溢出风险在eBird上看到的.

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