相关实验视频
一种模糊的时间序列驱动的整体方法,用于准确预测高等教育排名
Nidhi Agarwal1, Devendra Kumar Tayal2, P P Fathimathul Rajeena3
1School of Computer Science and Engineering, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, India.
Scientific reports
|March 13, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的模糊时间序列组合模型 (EBTsA),以准确预测机构排名,在COVID-19大流行等全球不确定性中. 该EBTSA模型为更好的教育决策提供可靠的动态预测.
科学领域:
- 教育数据挖掘教育数据挖掘
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 全球高等教育因COVID-19而面临中断,揭示了基础设施和教学方面的局限性.
- 疫情造成了金融不稳定,并强调了有效的机构排名预测的必要性.
- 现有的排名模型经常将机构的位置视为静态,无法捕捉动态变化.
研究的目的:
- 在不确定的学术环境中开发一种新的组合模型,用于动态的机构等级预测.
- 整合模糊时间序列和整体机器学习,以提高预测的准确性.
- 解决静态排名模型的局限性,并考虑COVID前后的变化.
主要方法:
- 提出了一个基于时间序列的模糊集体模型,命名为集体基于时间序列协会 (EBTsA).
- 采用了模糊化,以适应性地考虑排名的时间变化的重要性.
- 将EBTsA与各种算法 (FTS,FCA,IFS,IFS_New) 进行比较,以获得动态排名预测性能.
主要成果:
- 该EBTSA模型实现了7.12的平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE),0.32的平均绝对缩放误差 (MASE) 和82.2%的方向精度 (DA).
- 在动态排名预测中,EBTsA与传统决定性模型相比表现优越.
- 该模型有效量化排名不确定性,并提供可靠的预测.
结论:
- 该EBTSA模型提供准确可靠的动态排名预测,帮助利益相关者做出明智的决策.
- 这项研究有助于实现联合国可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 4 (优质教育) 和10 (减少不平等).
- 该研究强调了动态排名预测在不断变化的高等教育领域的重要性.
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