使用cmip6模型和ETCCDI指数分析了河盆地的历史和未来极端情况
Shankarappa Sridhara1, Hemareddy Thimmareddy2, Mahesh Haroli2
1Centre for Climate Resilient Agriculture & All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Keladi Shivappa Nayaka University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences, Shivamogga, 577204, Karnataka, India. sridharas1968@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|March 13, 2026
概括
气候变化正在加剧卡维里盆地的极端天气. 这项研究确定了未来预测的顶级气候模型,揭示了增加的热应激和洪水和干旱的风险,需要适应性策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端温度,改变了降水量,严重影响了水资源,农业和生态系统.
- 卡维里盆地是印度南部的重要水源,面临着对这些气候变化的重大脆弱性.
- 了解未来的极端事件对于区域适应计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 验证和排名相结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型用于预测卡维里地区的极端气候事件.
- 分析温度和降水极端的历史趋势和未来预测.
- 为水资源,农业和生态系统的适应战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用多标准决策 (MCDM) 技术,对13个CMIP6模型与印度气象局 (IMD) 的网格观测进行验证.
- 聘请气候变化检测和指数专家团队 (ETCCDI) 分析温度和降水极端情况.
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 评估历史数据 (1951-2023) 和未来气候预测.
主要成果:
- 确定了INM-CM5-0 (降水),INM-CM4-8 (Tmax) 和ACCESS-CM2 (Tmin) 作为表现最好的模型.
- 历史分析显示,温度极端 (例如,TXx,SU35,TN90p) 的显著增加以及高的年度间降水变化.
- 未来的预测表明加剧的热应激 (例如,TXx上升,SU35增加) 和极端降水事件 (例如,更高的RX5day,R95p) 和干旱 (例如,延长的CDD) 的风险增加.
结论:
- 预计卡维里盆地将经历更严重的热浪,以及更大的洪水和干旱交替发生的风险.
- 排名最高的CMIP6模型为预测这些极端事件提供了可靠的工具.
- 紧急实施气候智能农业和适应性水资源管理对于建立该地区的弹性至关重要.
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