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Updated: Mar 14, 2026

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在全球变暖下,绘制地图显示了南极冰川盆地的倾斜风险
Ricarda Winkelmann1,2,3, Julius Garbe1,3, Jonathan F Donges1,2,4
1Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
概括
南极冰盖面临着由于变暖而不可逆转的冰损失. 不同地区都有临界点,西南极洲面临1-2°C升温的风险,东南极洲面临2-5°C升温的风险,威胁到海平面的大幅上升.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 南极冰盖容易受到放大反的影响,从而加速冰的流失.
- 冰的消失可能导致实际上不可逆转的退缩,对全球海平面构成重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 分析南极单个排水盆地的独特性质和长期冰损失的风险.
- 在不同的全球变暖情景下评估这些风险.
主要方法:
- 分析各个排水盆地的冰损失动态.
- 评估影响冰盖稳定的地形和气候条件.
- 确定不同南极地区的临界变暖值.
主要成果:
- 一些南极盆地随着变暖而呈现逐渐的冰损失,而另一些则具有导致解体的关键值.
- 在工业化前的水平上升1-2°C可能会导致西南极洲40%的冰体积崩.
- 东南极洲的海洋基础部门,海平面潜在上升约5米,在2-5°C的变暖下风险不稳定.
结论:
- 南极冰盖包括多个相互作用的倾斜系统,而不是一个单一的单质系统.
- 了解盆地特定的脆弱性对于预测未来海平面上升至关重要.
- 南极冰层损失的早期预警值是可以识别的,对减缓气候变化的努力至关重要.
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