西部和中部太平洋黄鱼生产率的气候驱动变化,从国家空间模型推断出来
Xiaodong Li1, Zhe Geng1,2,3,4, Jie Cao5
1College of Marine Living Resource Sciences and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|March 14, 2026
概括
太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 和混合层厚度 (MLT) 等环境因素显著影响太平洋黄金枪鱼 (Thunnus albacares) 的生产力. 了解这些动态是可持续渔业管理的关键.
科学领域:
- 渔业 科学 渔业 科学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 为了有效管理海底鱼类种群,需要了解人口生产率的时间变化,特别是在气候变化下.
- 黄金枪鱼 (Thunnus albacares) 是太平洋西部和中部的一个关键物种,需要强大的评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 用一个时间变化的参数模型评估太平洋西部和中部黄金枪鱼的生产力动态.
- 检查环境变化的影响黄金枪鱼的生产力.
- 探索生产率估计和生物参考点中的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 在连续时间 (SPiCT) 中应用一个随机的剩余生产模型,具有时间变化的参数.
- 探索多个时间变化的参数化场景,以评估不确定性.
- 利用通用添加模型将环境变量与时间变化的生产力联系起来.
主要成果:
- 生产率估计显示在不同的建模场景中出现一致的时间模式,尽管规模和不确定性因模型结构而异.
- 太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 和混合层厚度 (MLT) 显示出与最大净生产率有显著的积极关联.
- 较高的PDO值和较高的MLT与增加的人口生产率相关.
结论:
- 环境的变化,特别是PDO和MLT,在塑造黄金枪鱼的时间变化的生产率方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 将环境指标纳入状态空间模型是可行的,并为解释库存动态提供了有价值的框架.
- 这种方法支持开发以生态系统为基础的黄金枪鱼渔业管理战略,在西太平洋和中太平洋.
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