刺松 (Juniperus oxycedrus L.) 的生态利基建模可以预测未来的中亚纳托利亚森林分布限制吗?
Derya Gülçin1,2, Javier Velázquez2,3, Gamze Tuttu4
1Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın 09100, Türkiye.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|March 14, 2026
概括
到2100年,气候变化将大大减少土耳其的刺树息地,特别是在高排放场景下. 未来适合的地区将局限于山区,突出了适应性管理策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 生态学和气候变化
- 生物多样性和保护
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
背景情况:
- 气候变化影响了木质物种的分布,特别是在地中海和半干旱地区,靠近森林草原地区.
- 刺 (Juniperus oxycedrus L.) 是土耳其的一个关键木质物种,易受气候变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化情景 (SSP) 下,模拟土耳其刺的现有和未来息地适合性.
- 确定影响刺松分布的关键环境预测因素.
- 为此物种提供气候适应和生物群管理策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用最大 (MaxEnt) 算法进行生态利基建模 (ENM).
- 利用了48个候选模型,根据统计性能选择了最佳模型 (AUC = 0.869).
- 使用生物气候变量和地形数据评估物种与环境的关系,以最干旱月份 (bio14) 的降水量和斜率为关键预测因素.
主要成果:
- 目前刺蔓延广泛分布在安纳托利亚内陆和地中海高地.
- 未来的预测显示,最初的息地损失有限,然后到2100年大幅减少,特别是在高排放场景下 (SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5).
- 预计适合息地将局限于山区,包括金牛座山脉和土耳其中部和北部的高地.
结论:
- 刺的气候适应与在生态值内管理生物群的边界密切相关.
- 扩大森林覆盖范围超出自然界限可能不是一个有效的适应战略.
- 保护工作应集中在保护高海拔地区的剩余和预计的适合息地.
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