[生态弹性的时空进化和沈阳的多场景进化模拟]
Yu-Qi Zhang1, Jia-Fu Liu1, Yue Zhu1
1College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping 136000, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|March 14, 2026
概括
沈阳的生态弹性从1990年到2020年有所下降,城市地区的弹性较低. 为实现未来的可持续性,建议采用生态优先发展路径.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 生态弹性对于可持续发展和生态系统支持至关重要.
- 了解生态弹性动态对于社会经济活动至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析沈阳的生态弹性 (1990-2020) 的空间和时间演变.
- 在沈阳 (2030) 的各种发展场景下模拟未来的生态弹性.
主要方法:
- 构建一个潜在弹性稳定性的生态弹性评估模型.
- 与场景模拟的MOP-PLUS模型的合.
- 基于抗性,适应性和弹性维度的分析.
主要成果:
- 沈阳的生态弹性从1990年到2020年呈现下降趋势.
- 东北/东南山脉和流域保持了更高的弹性,而城市中心显示了更低的弹性,扩张趋势.
- 生态优先发展产生了最高的弹性,经济优先是最低的,协调发展是一个中间但有利的结果.
结论:
- 协调发展为沈阳的未来提供了最有前途的道路,平衡经济和生态需求.
- 优先考虑生态发展增强了弹性,这对长期可持续性至关重要.
- 城市扩张对生态弹性产生负面影响,需要战略规划.
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