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中国运输部门碳排放强度的时空演变和空间差异化

Yongping Tang^1,2, Huiyuan Jiang^3,4

¹Sanya Science and Education Innovation Park, Wuhan University of Technology, Sanya, 572025, Hainan, China.

Scientific reports

|March 15, 2026

概括

中国的运输部门碳排放强度正在下降,但显示出显著的区域差异. 区域间的差异,特别是东部和西部之间的差异,是主要的驱动因素,需要定制的碳减排政策.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
经济学经济学经济学
空间分析空间分析

背景情况:

精确识别运输部门碳排放强度的时空演变和空间差异化对于有效的碳减排政策至关重要.
了解区域差异及其来源是解决交通部门气候变化减缓问题的关键.

研究的目的:

用静态和动态视角分析运输碳排放强度的空间差异.
研究运输碳排放强度的演变轨迹,持久性和空间溢出效应.
为运输部门制定特定区域的碳减排战略提供信息.

主要方法:

达格姆·吉尼系数用于量化静态空间差异及其来源.
核心密度估计用于描绘动态进化轨迹.
空间马尔科夫链模型分析持久性,空间溢出和路径依赖效应,并结合空间邻近性.

主要成果:

中国的运输碳排放强度显示出总体下降趋势,空间异质性显著,区域差异扩大,主要是由区域间差异 (47.374%) 推动的.
国家,东部和中部地区的逐渐趋同,与最初的趋同形成对比,随后在西部地区出现分歧,观察到明显的空间梯度结构.
运输碳排放强度的明显持久性和俱乐部趋同,空间马尔科夫链分析突出了邻近地区对当地过渡概率 (空间溢出和路径依赖) 的强烈影响.

结论:

运输部门的碳减排战略必须考虑到区域差异和空间相互依赖,以提高缓解效率.
针对性政策对于协调治理和有效的碳减排至关重要,考虑到观察到的空间溢出和路径依赖效应.
该研究强调了在分析和解决运输部门碳排放问题时需要纳入空间依赖的必要性.

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