草的气候变化驱动的扩张凸显了全球粮食生产的风险
Thiago Deomar Ludwig1, Ednaldo Alexandre Borgato2, Luis Antonio de Avila3
1Departamento de Genética, Escola Superior de Agricultura 'Luiz de Queiroz', Universidade de São Paulo (ESALQ/USP), Piracicaba, Brazil.
Pest management science
|March 15, 2026
概括
气候变化将使草 (Eleusine indica) 扩大到新的农业区,增加粮食安全风险. 早期检测和综合管理对于打击这种侵入性杂草的传播至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 抗除草药杂草和气候变化威胁全球粮食安全.
- 草 (eleusine indica) 是一种广泛的入侵物种,具有多种抵抗机制.
- 了解E. indica的气候适应性对于预测其传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内评估E. indica的当前和未来气候适应性.
- 在不同的气候变化场景下预测E. indica的扩张.
- 确定脆弱的农业地区.
主要方法:
- 使用地理引用的事件记录和气候预测器组合生态利基建模.
- 使用Bioclim,随机森林,支持矢量机器和Maxent进行模型校准和验证.
- 在SSP245和SSP585情景下分析当前和未来的适合性预测.
主要成果:
- 生态利基模型显示出出色的预测性能.
- 目前的适用性在热带和亚热带地区很高.
- 未来的预测表明,到2090年,极向扩张到温带地区,特别是在SSP585下,在美国玉米带和大豆生产地区等主要农业地区增加风险.
结论:
- 气候变化将促进E. indica向极地扩散,增加关键农业区的入侵风险.
- 预计它将在目前的范围保持广泛的气候稳定.
- 综合杂草管理,早期检测和持续监测对于减轻农业和粮食安全威胁至关重要.
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