[在患有急性肺栓塞的老年患者中开发和验证二次性肺炎风险预测模型]
Shijun Chen1, Mohan Weng1, Yunxiang Lü1
1（ 233000）Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu 233000, China.
概括
患有急性肺栓塞 (PE) 的老年患者面临更高的二次性肺梗塞 (PI) 风险,如果他们有酒精消耗,慢性支气管炎,心脏病,肺气或糖尿病等疾病. 一个新的预测模型准确地识别出这些高风险个体.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
背景情况:
- 急性肺栓塞 (PE) 是老年人的一个重大健康问题.
- 二次性肺梗塞 (PI) 是PE的严重并发症,特别是在老年人中.
- 识别风险因素和开发二级PI的预测工具对于临床管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在被诊断患有急性PE的老年患者中确定二次PI的独立风险因素.
- 在这个患者群体中开发和验证二级PI的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性研究包括147名老年PE患者,分为二级PI (n=44) 和非二级PI (n=103) 组.
- 逐步回归分析确定了独立的风险因素.
- 构建了一个风险预测模型,并对63名老年PE患者的单独队列进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 二次性PI的独立风险因素包括酒精消费,慢性支气管炎,肺气,冠状动脉心脏病,糖尿病和D-二次体水平升高.
- 预测模型表现出高的区分能力,在建模组的曲线下面面积 (AUC) 为0.936,在验证组为0.917.
- 该模型在两个队列中都显示出高精度和临床实用性.
结论:
- 老年PE患者具有特定的并发症 (酒精使用,慢性支气管炎,心脏病,肺气,糖尿病) 和升高的D-二次体有增加的二次PI的风险.
- 开发的风险预测模型对于评估老年PE患者的二次PI风险是准确和有效的,有助于临床决策.
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