一个基于代理的建模动态混合模型用于研究和开发中的项目管理
Robson Wilson Silva Pessoa1, Marie Hahn Naess1, Julia Carolina Bijos1
1Department of Chemical Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim 793101, Norway.
概括
本研究介绍了一种混合模型,将系统动力学 (SD) 和基于代理的建模 (ABM) 结合起来,以预测研发项目的成熟度. 4-5名成员的最佳团队规模提高了效率,减少了对石油和天然气创新的重新工作和项目持续时间.
科学领域:
- 工程管理工程管理工程管理
- 创新管理 创新管理
- 计算机建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 研究和开发 (R&D) 项目面临着影响技术进步的固有不确定性.
- 预测研发项目的演变和技术成熟度对于战略决策至关重要.
- 综合系统动力学 (SD) 和基于代理的建模 (ABM) 的混合建模方法提供了先进的功能,但在研发环境中未得到充分利用.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的混合SD-ABM框架,用于预测研发项目的技术成熟度.
- 分析项目结构和团队规模对研发项目的动态和效率的影响.
- 验证模型与R&D项目管理中的实证观测对齐.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种多层次的AB-SD混合模型,将系统级反 (工作阶段,重新处理) 与代理级交互 (团队成员,任务) 整合在一起.
- 在各种场景下,模拟了石油和天然气行业的早期创新项目.
- 对比基准案例 (平行任务) 与顺序和混合的平行顺序任务执行策略,不同的团队规模.
主要成果:
- 与基准情况相比,顺序执行任务可以减少88%的重复处理时间.
- 在并行配置中,由4-5名成员组成的团队表现最佳,减少了项目持续时间,提高了任务完成率.
- 团队规模的增加超出了最佳水平,导致由于通信复杂性和管理延误,回报率下降.
结论:
- 拟议的AB-SD混合框架有效地捕捉了研发项目的不确定性和新兴动态.
- 提供了对资源分配,任务安排和技术成熟度进展的定量见解.
- 结果支持实证证据,证明团队规模对研发项目的效率和协调的影响.
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