评估数据驱动分支模型 (SIR或VH) 对美国正在进行的登革热疫情的数据驱动分支模型 (SIR或VH) 的可靠性
Amit Kumar Roy1, Priti Kumar Roy2
1Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032, West Bengal, India.
Acta biotheoretica
|March 17, 2026
概括
这项研究比较了美国登革热爆发的SIR和载体宿主 (VH) 模型. VH模型更好地捕捉了爆发趋势,表明长期登革热流行的可能性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 疾病建模 疾病建模
背景情况:
- 分区模型对于理解登革热传播动态至关重要.
- 现有的模型在明确考虑蚊子种群方面有所不同.
- 准确的建模对于预测和管理登革热疫情至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较简单的SIR模型与载体-宿主 (VH) 相互作用模型对美国登革热数据的适用性.
- 分析两个模型的参数估计,不确定性和灵敏度.
- 预测未来的登革热爆发趋势,并评估长期流行病的可能性.
主要方法:
- 用美国登革热数据对SIR和VH模型进行比较分析.
- 通过Nelder-Mead简单算法进行参数估计,并使用规范化根平均平方误差 (NRMSE).
- 使用拉丁式超立方采样 (LHS) 的不确定性分析和使用部分等级相关系数 (PRCC) 进行基本复制数 (R0) 的灵敏性分析.
主要成果:
- 与SIR模型相比,载体-宿主相互作用 (VH) 模型表现出与登革热数据的优越匹配.
- 参数不确定性和灵敏度分析为模型预测和基本复制数提供了洞察力.
- 计算的参数区域表明了两个模型中平衡点持久的条件.
结论:
- 载体-宿主相互作用 (VH) 模型更适合在正在进行的美国疫情期间捕捉登革热趋势.
- 分析表明,美国在不久的将来可能面临长期的登革热疫情.
- 这项研究为流行病学研究中的模型选择,参数估计和预测提供了宝贵的见解.
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