在泰国建模结核病-艾滋病毒联合感染,并评估干预策略
Md Abdul Kuddus1, Sazia Khatun Tithi1, Anip Kumar Paul1
1Department of Mathematics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh.
BMC infectious diseases
|March 17, 2026
概括
在泰国解决结核病 (TB) 和人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 的双重负担需要有针对性的干预措施. 数学建模表明,减少疾病进展和增加共感染治疗是降低患病率的关键.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 和人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 的联合感染构成了全球和国家公共卫生方面的重大挑战.
- 这种双重感染加剧了疾病的严重程度,使治疗复杂化,并提高了死亡率.
- 泰国面临着由结核病与艾滋病毒共同感染造成的重大负担.
研究的目的:
- 开发和利用数学模型来分析泰国结核病,艾滋病毒和结核病-艾滋病毒共同感染的流行率的动态.
- 确定影响疾病传播和疾病负担的关键因素.
- 评估各种干预策略对从2022年到2039年减少综合疾病负担的影响.
主要方法:
- 为结核病-艾滋病毒共感染动态开发数学模型.
- 模型的校准使用来自泰国的真实世界结核病-艾滋病毒共感染发病率数据.
- 全球敏感性分析,以确定传播速率对繁殖数量的影响.
- 模拟干预策略,以评估它们对疾病流行率的影响.
主要成果:
- 结核病和艾滋病毒的传播率显著影响基本生殖数量,这表明了关键的干预目标.
- 增加结核病治疗覆盖率可以降低结核病的患病率,但最初可能会增加艾滋病毒和同时感染的患病率.
- 治疗结核病-艾滋病毒联合感染的个体有效降低了联合感染的流行率.
- 降低结核病和艾滋病毒的进展率,可以大大持续地降低整体疾病患病率.
- 结核病患者的高艾滋病毒感染增加了共感染负担;艾滋病毒患者的结核病感染增加加速了艾滋病毒的进展.
结论:
- 针对结核病和艾滋病毒的双重负担对于降低泰国疾病患病率至关重要.
- 干预措施应侧重于降低疾病进展率和加强共感染者的治疗.
- 解决结核病和艾滋病毒传播之间的相互作用对于消除疾病的努力至关重要.
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