到2020年,医生劳动力的前景
1Health Policy Institute, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee 53226, USA.
JAMA
|November 15, 1995
概括
到2020年,医生需求将增加,但供应可能会超过它,创造当地余. 非医生临床医生增长影响未来的医生需求.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 医学经济学 医学经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 评估到2020年的医生供需情况.
- 检查了健康维护组织 (HMO),医生分配和非医生临床医生供应中的利用情况.
- 重新评估了先前的研究,预计医生有显著的余.
研究的目的:
- 预测医生需求和供应到2020年.
- 分析非医生临床医师对未来医生劳动力需求的影响.
- 为制定有关临床医生人力计划的政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 根据1993年的数据估计的国家医生需求 (每10万人口205人).
- 预计到2020年,由于服务扩展和减少医生工作量,需求将增加18%.
- 分析了各州医生分布的变化以及非医生临床医生的预计增长.
主要成果:
- 预计医生余在2000年为31,000人,到2010年增至62,000人,然后逐渐缩小.
- 医生与人口比率在州一级的显著变化,表明现有的短缺和余.
- 预计到2010年,非医生临床医生的数量将翻一番,相当于患者护理医生的60%.
结论:
- 在考虑所有临床医生时,没有重大即将出现的国家医生余.
- 医生的地理分布将是当地余的一个关键因素.
- 未来的医生余取决于患者利用医生和非医生临床医生提供的服务.
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