确定重症监护中的徒劳性
S Atkinson1, D Bihari, M Smithies
1Department of Surgery, Guy's Hospital, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 29, 1994
概括
这项研究开发了一个器官衰竭评分来预测重症监护病人的死亡率. 该得分准确识别了95.6%可能死亡的患者,有助于为重症监护分配资源.
科学领域:
- 关键护理医学 关键护理医学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 预测模型的预测建模
背景情况:
- 密切护理费用正在上升,需要及早识别未幸存者.
- 延长危急病患者的寿命耗费了资源.
- 需要认识到不太可能从持续的重症监护中受益的患者.
研究的目的:
- 评估修改后的APACHE II评分对预测重症监护中的死亡率的有用性.
- 根据预测结果,评估集中护理资源分配的成本效益.
- 在重症监护中确定早期徒劳性预测的准确性和含义.
主要方法:
- 使用修改后的APACHE II分数 (器官衰竭分数) 来预测每天的结果.
- 分析了3600名重症监护病人的数据.
- 计算的灵敏度,特异性和假阳性率用于死亡率预测.
主要成果:
- 在预测死亡的137名患者中,有131人 (95.6%) 在90天内死亡 (特异性为99.8%,敏感性为23.4%).
- 预计将死亡的患者承担了大量的重症监护费用 (16.7%的总支出).
- 预计没有幸存者的中位生存时间为2天,每名幸存者的重症监护费用很高.
结论:
- 修改后的APACHE II评分显示了识别无用的重症监护的潜力.
- 未来的使用可能会优化资源分配,但存在从潜在的幸存者中扣留护理的风险.
- 需要仔细考虑早期徒劳性预测的伦理和临床影响.
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