发展中国家的人口政策选择
1Research Division, Population Council, New York, NY 10017.
概括
全球人口正在迅速增加,发展中国家正在推动增长. 虽然计划生育有帮助,但新的策略对于管理未来的人口增长和出生需求至关重要.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 发展中国家的世界人口正在迅速扩大,预计到2100年将达到102亿.
- 过去的人口控制工作主要集中在计划生育计划上.
- 计划生育在降低出生率方面取得了部分成功.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前人口增长战略的有效性.
- 确定除了计划生育之外,是否需要额外的政策选择.
主要方法:
- 历史人口增长数据的综述.
- 分析计划生育计划对出生率的影响.
- 评估替代政策措施的潜力.
主要成果:
- 计划生育计划对整体人口增长的影响有限.
- 尽管目前的干预措施,仍然预计会有显著的人口增加.
- 仅靠对计划生育的投资不足以制增长.
结论:
- 迫切需要采取额外的政策措施来应对人口增长.
- 战略必须专注于减少对分娩的需求.
- 限制人口势头对于未来的人口管理至关重要.
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