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国内生产与国际移民:美国医生劳动力的选择
1Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison 53706-1532, USA.
JAMA
|September 25, 1996
概括
实现医生供应目标需要立即减少研究生医学教育 (GME) 职位. 该模型表明,未来的医生劳动力调整可以通过减少美国培训的医学毕业生 (USMGs) 或国际医学毕业生 (IMGs) 或两者兼而有之.
科学领域:
- 医生劳动力建模工作人员模型
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 医学教育政策 医疗教育政策
背景情况:
- 预测未来的医生供应对于医疗保健规划至关重要.
- 目前的医生供应模型需要考虑国内和国际医学毕业生.
- 研究生医学教育 (GME) 是医生劳动力组成的一个关键决定因素.
研究的目的:
- 为减少美国医学院毕业生 (USMGs),国际医学毕业生 (IMG) 移民和GME职位制定替代策略.
- 为了使医生供应与未来的医生与人口比例目标保持一致.
- 分析不同减肥组合对医生劳动力稳定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种医生供应的人口预测模型.
- 使用美国医学协会医生主档数据和当前供应预测对模型进行校准.
- 基于未来供应目标的年度GME输入,根据IMG未进入美国劳动力队伍进行调整.
主要成果:
- 由于医生退休率较低,将医生与人口比例稳定到目标水平可能需要长达50年的时间.
- 所有考虑的目标比率都需要立即减少GME总仓位.
- 需要减少USMG和IMG的数量是相互依赖的,并受到美国IMG保留率的影响.
结论:
- 未来的医生供应减少可以通过调整医生生产的IMG或USMG组件,或两者的组合来实现.
- 开发的模型可以估计GME组件的各种组合,以实现医生供应目标.
- 劳动力政策的调整需要长期的规划视野,以有效地稳定医生供应.
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