北大西洋多十年气候变化的可预测性
1S. M. Griffies, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Route 1, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA. E-mail: smg@gfdl.gov K. Bryan, Princeton University, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08544-0710, USA. E-mail: kbryan@splash. princeton.edu
概括
气候的可预测性超过几周,特别是在北大西洋. 全球海洋大气模型表明,与海面温度模式相关的十年级气候预测是可能的.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 由于大气不可预测性,天气预报仅限于几周.
- 海洋与大气的合使得长期气候变异性预测成为可能.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究北大西洋的十年级气候可预测性.
- 评估海洋-大气相互作用在气候预测中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用全球合海洋-大气模型.
- 分析了北大西洋的多十年海面温度模式.
主要成果:
- 在北大西洋确定了潜在的十年或更长的气候可预测性.
- 将北大西洋海面温度模式与欧亚大陆的气候变化联系起来.
结论:
- 北大西洋的十年气候预测是可行的.
- 一个有效的大西洋监测系统对于准确的气候预测至关重要.
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