世界人口的翻倍不太可能
W Lutz1, W Sanderson, S Scherbov
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. lutz@iiasa.ac.at
Nature
|June 19, 1997
概括
这项研究为全球人口预测引入了一种新的概率方法,利用专家对生育率,死亡率和移民趋势的见解. 研究结果表明,有三分之二的概率,世界人口在本世纪不会翻一番.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口研究 人口研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 传统的人口预测往往缺乏明确的不确定性量化.
- 现有的概率方法在很大程度上仅限于对特定国家的时间序列分析.
- 全球人口统计数据的局限性和过渡复杂性阻碍了时间序列方法.
研究的目的:
- 为全球人口预测开发一种新的概率方法.
- 纳入有关生育率,死亡率和移民不确定性的专家意见.
- 为2100年人口规模和年龄结构提供概率预测.
主要方法:
- 利用专家引发的生育率,死亡率和移民趋势.
- 纳入了关键人口统计变量90%的不确定性范围.
- 采用模拟技术来生成概率分布.
- 分析了13个全球地区的人口预测.
主要成果:
- 产生了13个世界地区的概率人口规模和年龄结构分布.
- 估计,到2100年,全球人口不会翻一番的概率为三分之二.
- 在全球范围内对未来人口趋势的量化不确定性.
结论:
- 新的概率方法为全球人口预测提供了更强大的方法.
- 专家意见对于解决人口预测中的不确定性至关重要,因为数据稀缺.
- 未来的全球人口增长面临重大不确定性,增长速度明显低于此前的预期.
相关概念视频
Population Growth
Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.However, realistic environmental conditions limit the number of...
Threats to Biodiversity
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
Conservation of Declining Populations
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
Exponential Growth
Bacterial populations exhibit exponential growth when conditions such as nutrient availability and temperature are favorable. In this phase, cells reproduce through binary fission, where each cell divides into two identical daughter cells. This process causes the population to double at regular intervals, resulting in a growth rate that is directly proportional to the current number of cells. As the population increases, the number of new cells formed during each generation also grows, creating...
Exponential Equations for Modeling Growth
Exponential models are essential for describing rapid, multiplicative changes in natural systems, such as population growth. When a population doubles at regular intervals, the process can be modeled using a suitable base. For instance, a bacterial culture that doubles every three hours follows the model n(t)=n0⋅2t/3, where n(t) is the population at the time t.A more general model uses the natural base e, especially for continuous growth. This takes the form n(t)=n0⋅ert, where r is the relative...
Modeling with Differential Equations
Population dynamics can be described mathematically by considering the population size P(t) as a function of time. The rate of change of the population is then represented by the derivative of P(t). A simple assumption is that the rate of growth is proportional to the size of the population itself. This leads to an exponential growth model, where the population increases rapidly without bound. While this is a useful first approximation, it does not reflect realistic long-term...


