控制生物武器. 控制生物武器. 对未来的前景和影响
R P Kadlec1, A P Zelicoff, A M Vrtis
1Office of the Secretary of Defense, Washington, DC, USA.
JAMA
|August 6, 1997
概括
生物和毒素武器公约缺乏监督. 调查疾病爆发和滥用指控可以识别非法生物活动,加强全球卫生安全.
科学领域:
- 生物安全和国际法
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 生物和毒素武器公约 (BWC),成立于1975年,禁止生物武器,但缺乏验证机制.
- 140个国家已经批准了BWC,目前正在进行外交努力,以创建一个具有法律约束力的议定书,以加强遵守.
研究的目的:
- 确定加强BWC核查能力的有效措施.
- 提出具有高正负预测值的诊断程序,用于检测非法生物活动.
- 将BWC验证与全球公共卫生和疾病控制倡议保持一致.
主要方法:
- 类似于医学诊断的推理,用于评估拟议的BWC验证措施.
- 评估潜在监测程序的诊断准确性 (正负预测值).
- 分析调查不寻常疾病爆发和使用指控的实用性.
主要成果:
- 很少有拟议的BWC强化措施符合高诊断价值标准.
- 对不寻常疾病爆发的调查和使用的指控高度表明非法活动.
- 这些调查程序尽量减少假阳性指控.
结论:
- 有效的BWC强化依赖于具有高预测值的诊断程序.
- 调查疾病爆发和使用指控提供了一种可行的方法来检测违规行为.
- 这些措施可以同时加强全球公共卫生和核不扩散努力.
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