[Rationale of inpatient care--towards a new payment system]

German statutory health insurance is introducing a system of lump sum payments for hospital care in the framework of a sectorial budget. All hospital cases covered by a major regional health insurance fund (AOK Magdeburg) and completed in 1995 to 1997 (590,000 cases and 7.6 million hospital days, resp.) were analysed to find out changes in the main parameters of inpatient care. The number of hospital cases per 10,000 insured persons continues to increase even after age-adjustment. The increase was 3.1% from 1996 to 1997. Hence the objective "outpatient treatment ranks before inpatient treatment" has not been achieved. The number of hospital days per 10,000 insured patients also increased. Hence the concept of "controlled touch down" (i.e. reaching the prospectively negotiated number of hospital days exactly) has not succeeded. After taking age into account, the number of hospital days slightly and for the first time decreased in 1997 compared to 1996. The average level of hospital stay (LOS) is decreasing, but still high. The proportion of cases with hospital stays exceeding the "Length of Stay Guidelines" was more than 30% in 1997. The pattern of the three parameters (number of cases, hospital days, and LOS) indicate that hospitals manage bed occupancy rates in the first place and that the indications for inpatient treatment are getting softer. Between 1996 and 1997 there has been a 17.5% increase in the total number of cases reimbursed by lump sums. In some categories of the fee schedule the increase is considerably greater. Such changes in performance make it difficult for both contracting parties to assess the "necessary" amount of cases and procedures to be covered by lump sum payments. In a considerable proportion of cases covered by lump sum renumeration, the LOS is longer than the calculated average on which costing is based. In spite of this, however, most hospitals gain more income from lump sum payment than they would if their per diem rates were applied. The proportion of cases with the LOS exceeding the upper compensation limit is low. Between hospitals, the average LOS in the same categories of the fee schedule differs by a factor of 1.5 to 2. There is no consistent indication of adverse risk selection. If the present payment system is maintained until the end of 1999 (or even 2001 as preferred by some), German hospitals will have an opportunity to continue with their development of organisation and costing, to improve their structure of services as well as their negotiating power and- the full compensation scheme having been abandoned in favour of prospective budgets- to net rationalization profits.