US health care: a look ahead to 2025

The chapter begins with a reminder that forecasting changes in the health care sector a quarter to a third of a century in the future is likely to be a losing effort, based on past experience. It next considers changing organization and financing and questions that managed care and market competition will be the key forces introducing change. The author looks forward to the passage of universal health insurance coverage for essential care by early in the new century, with patients having to pay for more choice and more quality. The analysis next focuses on the physician supply and points to three challenges: how to moderate the numbers being trained; whether to reconsider the conventional wisdom of training more generalists; and how to support more resources for the National Health Service Corps to improve coverage in underserved areas. The author predicts the restructuring of acute care hospitals, with a marked reduction of in-patient beds, and that leading-edge research-oriented academic health centers should be able to remain out in front. There are also potential gains in health status from prevention and molecular medicine in a nation where chronic disease will dominate.