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Prediction of adult overweight during the pediatric years
1Department of Pediatrics, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China.
Insights
Identifying at-risk children early is crucial for preventing adult obesity. This study developed probability charts using Body Mass Index (BMI) to predict childhood obesity risk up to 18 years of age.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Endocrinology
- Public Health
- Growth and Development
Background:
- Adult obesity is linked to higher mortality rates from various diseases.
- Childhood overweight and obesity often persist into adulthood, necessitating early identification of at-risk individuals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel instrument for identifying children at high risk of adult obesity.
- To enable earlier clinical intervention for pediatric obesity prevention.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from a longitudinal growth study of 3650 Swedish children from birth to 18 years.
- Employed Body Mass Index (BMI) measurements during childhood to estimate the risk of adult obesity.
- Constructed probability charts correlating pediatric BMI with the likelihood of being overweight at 18 years of age.
Main Results:
- Established probability charts to predict the risk of becoming overweight (>25 kg/m2) by age 18.
- Demonstrated example risks: a 4-year-old girl with BMI 16 kg/m2 has a 20% risk; a 4-year-old boy with BMI 19 kg/m2 has a 60% risk of adult overweight.
- These charts represent the first probability risk assessment tool for adult overweight developed from pediatric data.
Conclusions:
- The developed probability charts offer an easy and novel method for identifying children at high risk for adult obesity.
- Early identification facilitates timely clinical interventions, potentially mitigating long-term health consequences of obesity.
Abstract:
Obesity in adults is associated with an increased mortality rate from various diseases. Childhood overweight or obesity may persist into adulthood, and for this reason it is important to identify such children at risk. The data were taken from a larger longitudinal growth study of 3650 full-term and healthy Swedish babies followed from birth to 18 y of age. Body mass index (BMI) was used to estimate (during the pediatric years) the risk of obesity at 18 y of age. A probability chart for becoming overweight (>25 kg/m2) by 18 y of age was constructed, For example, in girls, a BMI of 16 kg/m2 at 4 y of age is associated with a 20% risk of attaining a BMI value over 25 kg/m2 at 18 y, and in boys at 4 y of age, a BMI of 19 kg/m2 leads to a 60% risk that they will have a BMI value over 25 kg/m2 at 18 y. The probability risk charts for adult overweight developed here is the first one presented. They provide an easy and novel instrument to use to identify those children who are at high risk of becoming obese adults, so that they may have clinical intervention at younger ages.
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