Projecting shortages and surpluses of dentists from available data

The usefulness of manpower projections are reviewed and methodologies for projecting are reviewed. Estimates of current (1975) and projected (1990) surpluses and deficits of dentists are presented for Illinois. The model used to derive these estimates has the following characteristics. 1. Only generally available data are used. 2. Mortality rates of dentists, production and retention of new dentists, dental productivity by age, and immigration of dentists are all accounted for. 3. It is assumed that the distribution of new dentists in the future will be similar to the distribution of currently practicing dentists. 4. The assumptions regarding the demand variables of dental productivity and patient visits per person per year can be varied according to the specific situation.