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Published on: September 19, 2012
Comparison of forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions
L T Flannelly1, K J Flannelly, M S McLeod
1School of Nursing, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu 96822, USA. flannel@hawaii.edu
Abstract:
Three surveys compared the accuracy of predictions based on forced-choice and subjective probability scales. The latter produced significantly more accurate election predictions and significantly reduced the percentage of undecided, or "Don't Know" responses, compared to forced-choice scales in all three surveys. Analysis indicates subjective probability scales decrease sampling error and confirms there is an inherent source of error in traditional forced-choice questions about voting intentions not attributable to sampling error. The results are discussed with respect to (1) sampling and measurement errors in forced-choice and subjective probability scales measuring behavioral intentions, (2) their practical application, and (3) cognitive theory, especially support theory.
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