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[Scenario analysis--a method for long-term planning].

K Stavem1

  • 1Stiftelse for helsetjenesteforskning (HELTEF), Sentralsykehuset i Akershus, Nordbyhagen. knut.stavem@klinmed.uio.no

Tidsskrift for Den Norske Laegeforening : Tidsskrift for Praktisk Medicin, Ny Raekke
|May 18, 2000
PubMed
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Scenario analysis is a long-term planning method using future pictures to prepare decision-makers for changing conditions. It helps navigate uncertainty by exploring plausible developments and consequences of choices.

Area of Science:

  • Strategic Planning
  • Futures Studies
  • Decision Analysis

Context:

  • Scenario analysis, originating from film industry practices, offers a structured approach to long-term planning.
  • It involves creating detailed descriptions of potential future scenarios to inform strategic decision-making.
  • The method is particularly relevant in dynamic environments characterized by shifting external conditions and uncertainty.

Purpose:

  • To introduce the fundamental principles and applications of the scenario analysis method.
  • To highlight the value of exploring plausible future developments rather than solely probable ones.
  • To guide decision-makers in identifying critical issues and evaluating alternative choices.

Summary:

  • This article provides an introduction to scenario analysis, a strategic planning technique.

Related Experiment Videos

  • It explains how scenarios, as composite future pictures, aid in anticipating and preparing for potential challenges.
  • The method focuses on plausible, not necessarily probable, future developments and their implications.

    • Impact:

    • Enhances corporate and governmental long-term planning capabilities.
    • Complements traditional planning methods by incorporating future uncertainties.
    • Empowers organizations to proactively address complex challenges in rapidly evolving landscapes.