Early predictors of mortality and morbidity after severe closed head injury

Mortality and morbidity of 158 patients with severe head injury were studied in relation to age, and early (24-h) clinical and computed tomography data. For comparison of outcome data in survivors, a group of 32 patients with traumatic injuries to parts of the body other than the head was used as controls. Within the head-injured group, the mortality rate was 51%. Logistic regression analyses combined 13 out of 16 predictors into a model with an accuracy of 93%, a sensitivity of 90%, and a specificity of 95%. These include age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, pupillary reactivity, blood pressure, intracranial pressure, blood glucose, platelet count, body temperature, cerebral lactate, and subdural, intracranial, subarachnoid, and ventricular hemorrhage. At 6 months postinjury, head-injury survivors and trauma controls were evaluated with the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS), a neuropsychological test battery and the Sickness Impact Profile (SIP). Head-injury survivors had a higher proportion of disabilities and neuropsychological dysfunctions than trauma controls. They also report more quality of life-related functional limitations on the SIP scales for mobility, intellectual behavior, communication, home management, eating, and work. Linear regression analysis resulted in age being the only important predictor of outcome on the GOS, the GCS score being the best predictor of neuropsychological functioning, and pupillary reactivity being the most predictive for self-reported quality of life as measured by SIP. Those factors important for predicting mortality (clinical variables such as ICP or blood glucose level, and CT observations) failed to show any significant relationship with morbidity.