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Modeling ship transportation risk

Fowler1, Sorgard

  • 1Det Norske Veritas, Region UK, London. Tim.Fowler@dnv.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|June 22, 2000
PubMed
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The Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) was developed to improve maritime safety in coastal waters. While generally accurate, the system requires refinement for specific ship types and grounding accident categories.

Area of Science:

  • Maritime Safety
  • Risk Assessment
  • Naval Engineering

Background:

  • The Commission of the European Communities (CEC) project "Safety of Shipping in Coastal Waters" (SAFECO) aimed to enhance maritime safety.
  • Marine accidents in coastal waters pose significant risks, necessitating advanced risk assessment tools.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present the developed Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) from the SAFECO project.
  • To analyze factors influencing marine accident risk levels in coastal shipping.
  • To validate the MARCS model through a North Sea case study.

Main Methods:

  • Development and application of the Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS).
  • Utilizing a "demonstration of concept" case study in the North Sea.

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  • Comparing estimated accident frequencies with historical maritime accident data.

    • Main Results:

    • The MARCS model demonstrated reasonable to good agreement with historical accident statistics (within a factor of 2 to 5).
    • Significant discrepancies were noted for specific ship types and accident categories, particularly drift and powered grounding for ferries.
    • Model validity was demonstrated, but areas for improvement were identified.

    Conclusions:

    • The MARCS model provides a valid approach to estimating maritime accident frequencies.
    • Uncertainties in risk model algorithms, traffic data, failure probabilities, and historical data impact accuracy.
    • Further refinement of MARCS is needed to address identified discrepancies for enhanced maritime safety.