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Implications of privatizing/deregulating alcohol retail sales: projections of alcohol consumption in Ontario.

M Her1, N Giesbrecht, R Room

  • 1Center for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Mher@arf.org

Journal of Substance Abuse
|July 18, 2000
PubMed
Summary
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Privatizing alcohol retail in Ontario is projected to increase per capita alcohol consumption by 11–27%. This suggests caution is needed when modifying alcohol control policies due to potential increases in drinking-related problems.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Economics
  • Alcohol Policy Research

Background:

  • Ontario currently operates under alcohol retail monopolies.
  • Privatization and deregulation are proposed policy changes.
  • Understanding the impact on alcohol consumption is crucial for public health.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the consequences of privatizing or deregulating alcohol retail monopolies in Ontario, Canada.
  • To estimate the impact of these policy changes on per capita alcohol consumption.

Main Methods:

  • A multiplicative model was used for projections.
  • Four hypothetical scenarios (partial and complete privatization) were analyzed.
  • Scenarios focused on changes in alcohol physical and economic availability (retail prices).

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Main Results:

  • Per capita alcohol consumption is expected to increase in all four scenarios (11%–27% increase).
  • Sensitivity analysis confirmed a similar increase, though magnitude varied by scenario.
  • Increased alcohol consumption is linked to elevated drinking-related problems.

Conclusions:

  • Privatization/deregulation is likely to increase alcohol consumption in Ontario.
  • Policy modifications require careful consideration due to potential public health consequences.
  • Proceed with caution when altering alcohol control policies.