Thyroid dosimetry in Europe following the Chernobyl accident

Thyroid dose estimates for European populations following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have been presented in the literature. These dose estimates used standard values for parameters such as thyroid mass, iodine uptake and biological half-life. Previous work has shown that these values are not representative of European populations and that local values should be utilized. Using published data on revised thyroid dose estimates, thyroid dosimetry data arising as a result of the Chernobyl accident are presented for 22 European countries. When these are compared with previously published estimates it is found that in all cases the previous results underestimate the thyroid dose by up to a factor of 4. Risk estimates on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal thyroid cancers are also determined from this new data and, again, the results are underestimated. The results show an increase in the number of fatal cancers, rising from 149 as predicted by the NEA to 310 under the new estimates, and from 180 as predicted by UNSCEAR to the new estimate of 380.