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Infectious diseases in the 21st century. Are we entering the hot zone?
1National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney. gdore@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
Background:
The emergence and re-emergence of several infectious diseases in the latter part of the 20th century has created considerable concern, but what real impact will these and other infectious diseases have in the 21st century?
Objective:
To assess trends in infectious disease mortality, both globally and within Australia.
Results:
Mortality related to infectious disease has declined throughout the 20th century in both developed and developing regions. In Australia, over the period 1979-1994 infectious disease mortality declined 17%, with similar trends seen in several other developed countries. In contrast, over a similar period infectious disease mortality increased in the United States by approximately 40%. Despite an escalating global HIV epidemic and continuing high tuberculosis incidence, infectious disease mortality is projected to decline further in the early part of the 21st century, in developed and developing regions. By 2020 an infectious disease category will not appear in the top 10 causes of death in developed regions or top five causes of death in developing regions.
Conclusion:
Infectious disease mortality is likely to continue its overall decline well into the 21st century.