Evaluating the simplified Conjoint Expected Risk model: comparing the use of objective and subjective information

Area of Science:

• Decision analysis
• Risk perception modeling
• Behavioral economics

Background:

• The Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model evaluates gambles using objective data.
• A simplified CER model accommodates subjective judgments for health/technology activities.
• The robustness of the simplified CER model to information source is under investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the validity of the simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model.
• To compare the performance of the simplified CER model using objective versus subjective information.
• To determine if the simplified CER model is viable for activities with subjective risk variables.

Main Methods:

• Comparison of simplified CER model parameter estimates using objective and subjective information.
• Analysis of the proportion of variance in risk judgments explained by the model under both conditions.
• Evaluation of model performance sensitivity to information source.

Main Results:

• Parameter estimates for the simplified CER model were similar across objective and subjective information conditions.
• The proportion of variance in risk judgments accounted for by the model was comparable under both conditions.
• Model performance was not significantly affected by the source of information.

Conclusions:

• The simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model demonstrates viability when harm and benefit information is subjective.
• The model's performance is robust to the source of information (objective vs. subjective).
• This validates the use of the simplified CER model for complex health and technology risk assessments.