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Predictive inference, causal reasoning, and model assessment in nonparametric Bayesian analysis: a case study
1Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, University of Helsinki, Finland. elja.arjas@rni.helsinki.fi
Abstract:
This paper continues our earlier analysis of a data set on acute ear infections in small children, presented in Andreev and Arjas (1998). The main goal here is to provide a method, based on the use of predictive distributions, for assessing the possible causal influence which the type of day care will have on the incidence of ear infections. A closely related technique is used for the assessment of the nonparametric Bayesian intensity model applied in the paper. Two graphical methods, supported by formal tests, are suggested for this purpose.
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