You can go home again: evidence from longitudinal data

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Return migration is a significant demographic phenomenon.
• Understanding factors influencing immigrant decisions to return is crucial for policy and social science.
• Generation 1.5 immigrants represent a unique cohort with complex ties to both origin and destination countries.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze economic and demographic determinants of return migration among Generation 1.5 immigrants.
• To investigate the influence of economic incentives, cultural ties, and welfare policies on return migration decisions.
• To examine the role of skills, as measured by the Armed Forces Qualifying Test, in return migration.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79).
• Tracking residential histories of young immigrants in the United States.
• Analyzing covariates associated with the decision to migrate back to the home country.

Main Results:

• Return migration is significantly influenced by economic incentives.
• Cultural and linguistic ties to both the United States and the home country play a role.
• Welfare magnets were found to have no impact on the decision to return, but welfare participation was associated with a lower probability of return.
• No evidence of skill bias (measured by Armed Forces Qualifying Test performance) in return migration was observed.

Conclusions:

• Economic factors and socio-cultural ties are key drivers of return migration for Generation 1.5 immigrants.
• Welfare policies do not appear to incentivize return migration, and participation may even decrease its likelihood.
• Skill level does not significantly predict return migration in this cohort.