[Forecasting the number of patients with end-stage renal disease (Model of the system)]

The authors are dealing with the renal replacement therapies in Hungary. They are on the opinion that in view fo patient flow renal replacement therapies (such as various methods of dialysis and kidney transplantation) can be considered as one system. With analysing the number of patients in the past years they can establish that end-stage renal disease puts significant burden on the health insurance fund. According to their calculations the number of patients with end-stage renal disease will increase by 14-16% in the next few years if current trends continue. If we want to operate the system efficiently, we can reduce--up to a certain extent--the economic burden of dialysis by increasing the number of kidney transplantations.