Geographic targeting of nutrition programs can substantially affect the severity of stunting in Honduras

The effect of nutrition intervention programs in developing countries is likely to vary with the degree to which the program can be successfully targeted at the most vulnerable. In Honduras, the existence of a recent census of the height of first-grade children makes it possible to assess a priori the effect of different targeting strategies, holding constant other features of a hypothetical program. We simulate a nutrition intervention with 20% national coverage and uniform gains of 0.5 Z-scores for all beneficiaries, with a number of different approaches to targeting. The VIIth National Census of First-Graders' Heights provides the baseline scenario and permits identification of priority departments, municipalities, schools and individuals, for a total of six alternative targeting mechanisms. Effect is assessed on the basis of changes in the prevalence of stunting (less than -2 Z-scores) and in two different measures of the severity of stunting adapted from the economics literature (the malnutrition gap and the quadratic malnutrition gap). We find that the simulated program has the potential to substantially improve the severity, but not the prevalence of stunting in Honduras. Household targeting with an imperfect indicator of vulnerability could reduce the malnutrition gap by >20% and the quadratic malnutrition gap by >30%, but would be very expensive to implement. "Broad stroke" geographic targeting could reduce the same measures by 15 and 20%, respectively, and would be much less expensive to implement. We conclude that geographic targeting has the potential to substantially enhance the effect of nutrition programs on the severity of stunting in Honduras.