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A modeling framework for exposing risks in complex systems.

J Sharit1

  • 1Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124-0623, USA. jsharit@miami.edu

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|October 29, 2000
PubMed
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This study presents a new modeling framework to identify human errors and adverse outcomes in high-risk systems. It combines accident theory with multiple system viewpoints for better risk analysis.

Area of Science:

  • Systems Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Human Factors Engineering

Background:

  • High-risk systems are prone to human errors and adverse consequences.
  • Existing risk analysis methods may not fully capture the complexities of these systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and develop a novel modeling framework for exposing risks in high-risk systems.
  • To enhance the understanding of human errors and adverse consequences.

Main Methods:

  • The framework integrates Perrow's two-dimensional theory of accidents (interactive complexity and tight coupling).
  • It incorporates the concept of multiple system perspectives for comprehensive analysis.
  • The methodology cross-links these components to reveal hidden work contexts.

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Main Results:

  • The modeling framework effectively exposes risks related to human errors and adverse consequences.
  • Application to a trauma care system demonstrated its utility in identifying complex risks.
  • The approach facilitates understanding of otherwise difficult-to-identify system processes.

Conclusions:

  • The developed modeling framework offers a valuable tool for risk analysis in high-risk systems.
  • It is particularly useful for complex, evolving systems requiring human and system reliability analysis.
  • The methodology enhances insight into system processes and potential failure points.