Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Disease Ecology

Background:

• Bubonic plague (Yersinia pestis) is re-emerging due to antibiotic resistance and increased incidence.
• Conventional human-disease models do not fully explain plague persistence and recurrence.
• Rodent populations are key reservoirs for Yersinia pestis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the role of rodent population dynamics in bubonic plague transmission.
• To model plague persistence and epidemic emergence in metapopulations.
• To evaluate the impact of interventions like vaccination and rat culling on human outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• Developed a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model.
• Simulated disease dynamics within rodent populations.
• Analyzed the conditions for plague persistence and human epidemic emergence.

Main Results:

• Bubonic plague can persist in small rodent populations, leading to sporadic human epidemics.
• The model explains historical plague persistence and recurrence despite quarantine.
• Human vaccination alone cannot eradicate the plague.
• Rat culling's effect on human epidemics is timing-dependent, potentially exacerbating outbreaks.

Conclusions:

• Rodent population dynamics are critical drivers of bubonic plague.
• Understanding plague reservoirs in wild rodents is vital for public health.
• Interventions must consider rodent-host dynamics to prevent human outbreaks.