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Predictors of cerebrovascular events and death among patients with valvular heart disease: A population-based study
G W Petty1, B K Khandheria, J P Whisnant
1Division of Cerebrovascular Diseases, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, Rochester, MN 55905, USA.
Insights
Patients with valvular heart disease face high risks of cerebrovascular events and death. Age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis predict these events, while age, sex, and comorbidities predict mortality.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Neurology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Valvular heart disease (VHD) affects millions globally.
- Population-based data on cerebrovascular events (CVEs) and survival in VHD patients are limited.
- Understanding risk factors is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the rates and predictors of CVEs and death in a population-based cohort of VHD patients.
- To provide essential epidemiological insights into VHD outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Population-based historical cohort study.
- Inclusion of residents with new diagnoses of mitral stenosis, mitral regurgitation, aortic stenosis, or aortic regurgitation (1985-1992).
- Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models used for analysis.
Main Results:
- Elevated rates of CVEs (Standardized Morbidity Ratio [SMR] = 3.2) and death (SMR = 2.5) observed in VHD patients.
- Independent predictors of CVEs: age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis (Risk Ratio [RR] = 3.5).
- Independent predictors of death: age, sex, CVEs, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure (CHF). Highest risk with both CHF and CVEs (RR = 8.8).
Conclusions:
- VHD patients have a significantly elevated risk of CVEs and mortality.
- Key predictors for CVEs include age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis.
- Age, sex, prior CVEs, CHF, and ischemic heart disease are critical predictors of death in this population.
Background And Purpose:
There is little population-based information on cerebrovascular events and survival among valvular heart disease patients. We used the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method and the Cox proportional hazards model to determine rates and predictors of cerebrovascular events and death among valve disease patients.
Methods:
This population-based historical cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, reviewed residents with a first echocardiographic diagnosis of mitral stenosis (n=19), mitral regurgitation (n=528), aortic stenosis (n=140), and aortic regurgitation (n=106) between 1985 and 1992.
Results:
During 2694 person-years of follow-up, 98 patients developed cerebrovascular events and 356 died. Compared with expected numbers, these observations are significantly elevated, with standardized morbidity ratio of 3.2 (95% CI, 2.6 to 3.8) and 2. 5 (95% CI, 2.2 to 2.7), respectively. Independent predictors of cerebrovascular events were age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis. The risk ratio of severe aortic stenosis was 3.5 (95% CI, 1.4 to 8.6), with atrial fibrillation conferring greater risk at younger age. Predictors of death were age, sex, cerebrovascular events, ischemic heart disease, and congestive heart failure, the greatest risk being among those with both congestive heart failure and cerebrovascular events (risk ratio=8.8; 95% CI, 5. 8 to 13.4). Valve disease type and severity were not independent determinants of death.
Conclusions:
The risk of cerebrovascular events and death among patients with valve disease remains high. Age, atrial fibrillation, and severe aortic stenosis are independent predictors of cerebrovascular events, and age, sex, cerebrovascular events, congestive heart failure, and ischemic heart disease are independent predictors of death in these patients.
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