Communication of doubt and certainty in radiological reports

We have investigated the reliability of communication of uncertainty in radiological reports. The 18 most commonly used verbal expressions of probability were identified from a series of radiological reports. 11 clinicians (three radiologists, three rheumatologists and five orthopaedic surgeons) recorded the probability that they ascribed to each of the 18 expressions using visual analogue scales. Each subject was re-tested on four occasions at least 1 week apart. The results were analysed to assess reproducibility within and between individuals. We found considerable variation in the probabilities assigned to many commonly used expressions between subjects, and between repeated testing of the same subject. Some expressions were rated much more consistently than others. "Absent", "excludes", "unlikely", "probable", "certain" and "definite" were the most consistently rated expressions. We have identified a potential source of misunderstanding in radiological reports owing to differences in interpretation of expressions used by radiologists and referring clinicians.