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Related Experiment Videos

Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula.

H P Kohler1, D Philipov

  • 1Research Group on Social Dynamics and Fertility, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Doberaner Str. 114, 18057 Rostock, Germany. kohler@demogr.mpg.de

Demography
|March 3, 2001
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces an adjusted fertility rate accounting for changes in birth timing variance. Ignoring these variance effects can bias fertility measurements and analyses.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Fertility Analysis

Background:

  • The Bongaarts and Feeney adjusted total fertility rate (TFR) separates tempo and quantum effects.
  • Tempo effects relate to the timing of births, while quantum effects concern the number of births.
  • Existing methods may not fully capture fertility schedule dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend the Bongaarts and Feeney fertility adjustment formula.
  • To incorporate the impact of changing variance in fertility schedules.
  • To correct for biases in mean age at birth and adjusted TFR when variance changes.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney adjusted total fertility rate formula.
  • Developed approximations for biases introduced by ignoring variance effects.
  • Applied the extended method to analyze fertility changes during Sweden's baby boom and bust.

Main Results:

  • Ignoring variance effects leads to biased estimates of the mean age at birth and adjusted TFR.
  • Variance effects were found to be significant in evaluating tempo and quantum contributions to fertility change.
  • Analysis of Swedish fertility data (1985-1995) highlights the importance of including variance effects.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed extension provides a more comprehensive measure of fertility change by including variance effects.
  • Accounting for changes in the variance of the fertility schedule is crucial for accurate demographic analysis.
  • This refined approach enhances understanding of the drivers behind fertility fluctuations.

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