Ozone air quality over north america: part II--an analysis of trend detection and attribution techniques

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O3 air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific climatological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O3 to emission control policies.