HLA class II associations with Type 1 diabetes mellitus: a multivariate approach

The association of HLA class II phenotype with the development of insulin-dependent (Type 1) diabetes mellitus (IDDM) is well established but the contribution of the various HLA-DR and -DQ alleles and haplotypes to disease predisposition is not fully understood. We have determined haplotype and genotype odds ratios, and further employed multivariate tree analysis to explore the contribution of individual HLA-DRDQ haplotypes to the genetic risk for developing IDDM in the Dutch population. Next to haplotype and genotype odds ratios, multivariate tree analysis techniques provide overall risk calculations for each modeled parameter, and offer insight in the interaction of the model parameters via tree-shaped reports, in which subsequent stratifications on the data can easily be followed. We compared 206 Dutch IDDM patients with 840 serologically typed random healthy unrelated Dutch Caucasoid controls. The multivariate tree analysis showed that the HLA-DR7DQ9 and DR15DQ6 haplotype were strongly associated with disease protection (OR = 0.04, P = 0.0003, and OR = 0.07, P < or = 0.0001, respectively). The highest ORs were found for the DR4DQ8/DR8DQ4 genotype (OR = 21.04, P = 0.001), followed by DR4DQ8/DR17DQ2 (OR = 12.45, P < 0.0001) and DR9DQ9/DR17DQ2 (OR = 10.87, P = 0.02). DR4DQ8 homozygous and DR17DQ2 homozygous individuals have a disease OR of 9.0 and 3.0 (P = 0.01 and 0.03), respectively. In conclusion, the results from haplotype, genotype, and tree analyses provide insight into the disease associations for combinations of HLA-DRDQ haplotypes. We confirm that the DR9DQ9/DR17DQ2 genotype is associated with susceptibility in the Dutch population, which has previously been noticed as a HLA risk genotypes in Asian populations only.