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Belief-based and covariation-based cues affect causal discounting.

J A Fugelsang1, V A Thompson

  • 1University of Saskatchewan. jonathan.fugelsang@usask.ca

Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology = Revue Canadienne De Psychologie Experimentale
|April 17, 2001
PubMed
Summary

Causal discounting is reduced when a stronger cause is present. This study shows that belief in an alternative cause significantly impacts discounting, even more than statistical correlation.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Causal Inference

Background:

  • Causal discounting reduces a cause's perceived efficacy when a stronger alternative exists.
  • Previous research defined causal strength by covariation alone.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate causal discounting using both covariation and belief-based cues.
  • To determine how belief strength influences causal judgments.

Main Methods:

  • Seventy-two participants evaluated a fictional cause's efficacy.
  • Judgments were made in isolation and when paired with alternative causes.
  • Alternative causes varied in strength (covariation) and believability.

Main Results:

  • Causal discounting is influenced by both covariation and belief in alternative causes.

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  • Highly believable alternatives caused discounting, irrespective of weaker covariation.
  • Belief strength emerged as a critical factor in causal attribution.

    • Conclusions:

    • Models of causal attribution must integrate both belief-based and covariation-based cues.
    • Perceived causal strength is modulated by subjective belief in alternative explanations.