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The ultimate uncertainty--intergenerational planning.

C Starr1

  • 1Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA 94544, USA. cstarr@epri.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|April 21, 2001
PubMed
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Intergenerational planning over 50-100 years involves speculative, nontechnical values influencing quantitative benefit/cost/risk analyses. Despite uncertainties, this quantitative process is essential for long-term societal planning.

Area of Science:

  • Sociology
  • Economics
  • Systems Engineering

Background:

  • Intergenerational planning requires a long-term perspective (50-100 years), acknowledging inherent speculation.
  • Societal choices for future physical pathways are influenced by nontechnical, time-dependent value systems.
  • Competition among technical systems, investments, and objectives creates uncertainty in long-term planning outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review the philosophic and practical aspects of long-term intergenerational planning.
  • To analyze the role of quantitative benefit/cost/risk assessments in shaping future pathways.
  • To explore the challenges and essential nature of quantitative planning in uncertain futures.

Main Methods:

  • Review of philosophical and practical considerations in intergenerational planning.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analysis of how nontechnical value systems modify quantitative benefit/cost/risk analyses.
  • Discussion of benefit/cost/risk projections with and without historical data.

    • Main Results:

    • Quantitative planning provides a foundational basis for intergenerational strategies.
    • Benefit/cost/risk analyses are crucial for evaluating future physical pathways.
    • Understanding the continuous nature and end-objectives of these analyses is key.

    Conclusions:

    • Intergenerational planning is complex, influenced by both quantitative analysis and qualitative values.
    • Despite uncertainties, a structured quantitative approach is indispensable for long-term societal development.
    • Effective planning requires continuous assessment and adaptation to evolving societal factors.